Betting markets show PSG favored as Champions League final approaches

(AsiaGameHub) –   It’s safe to say that Arsenal and Paris Saint Germain have experienced contrasting fortunes in their Champions League campaigns this season.

Both clubs have already secured their domestic league titles and are set to compete tomorrow for Europe’s most prestigious club honour.

However, the differences in their Champions League journeys have been quite evident.

The French champions, aiming for consecutive Champions League titles after breaking their previous drought last season, started exceptionally strong, securing three consecutive wins against Atalanta, Barcelona, and Bayer Leverkusen, suggesting an inevitable triumph.

Nevertheless, a less convincing conclusion to their Champions League group stage, with two draws and one loss in their final three matches, forced the reigning champions into a round of 32 playoff against fellow Ligue 1 side Monaco, a tie they narrowly won 5-4 on aggregate.

However, their form appears to have returned to its peak. PSG’s fluid attacking style has led them to convincingly defeat most opponents they’ve faced.

Following an overwhelming 8-2 aggregate victory over Chelsea, they secured a decisive 4-0 aggregate win over two legs against Liverpool in the quarter-finals. They then overcame Bayern Munich 6-5 on aggregate in the semi-finals, which included a memorable first leg in Paris where the French side emerged victorious with a 5-4 scoreline.

In contrast, Arsenal dominated their group stage matches, achieving eight wins from eight games with only four goals conceded, comfortably topping their group.

However, their knockout stage performances have been more challenging. The newly crowned English champions have won two of their three two-legged ties by a single goal, and the other by two goals – a 3-1 victory against Bayer Leverkusen, a 1-0 win over Sporting CP, and a tense 2-1 defeat of Atletico Madrid in the semi-finals.

Perhaps due to these contrasting performances, betting data shared with SBC News from both bet365 and Sportradar indicates significant market confidence favouring the French champions ahead of tomorrow’s final in Budapest.

Champions League final markets breakdown

According to bet365’s trading figures, PSG has attracted 83% of outright “to lift the trophy” bets (currently priced at 4/6 on their platform), while Arsenal has received only 17% (priced at 6/5).

The bookmaker also reported substantial backing for PSG star Ousmane Dembélé in player markets, with 55% of anytime goalscorer bets and 37% of first goalscorer wagers placed on the French Ballon d’Or winner.

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is the second most popular choice in the anytime scorer market, with one in five punters backing the Georgian to score in the Champions League final.

Conversely, Arsenal players have seen considerably less betting support. Viktor Gyökeres accounts for 9% of anytime scorer bets, followed by Bukayo Saka, who holds 7% of the market.

UK operator bet365 is also implementing its new “More Time to Win” feature for the final.

Steve Freeth, bet365’s Sports and Trading Expert, elaborated: “It can be frustrating to see a player you backed in normal time go on to score or have a shot on target in extra time. However, our More Time to Win enhancement is designed to address this issue.

“To illustrate, consider the 2014 UEFA Champions League Final where Real Madrid defeated Atletico Madrid 4-1. The score was tied 1-1 at the end of normal time, and typically, markets would be settled based on that outcome. However, with More Time to Win, your bets on various player markets remain active if a match proceeds to extra-time. For instance, Anytime Goalscorer bettors who backed either Cristiano Ronaldo or Gareth Bale would have won their bets in extra time, which saw three goals, seven shots on target, and five yellow cards.”

Furthermore, Sportradar’s Managed Trading Services, which consolidates betting activity from over 250 sportsbooks globally, revealed a similar trend favouring PSG.

PSG accounted for 75% of bets in the final result and outright winner markets, reinforcing the perception that Luis Enrique’s team enters the final as favourites, despite Arsenal’s strong European campaign and recent Premier League title win.

Notably, Sportradar observed that long-term tournament winner bets earlier in the competition had slightly favoured Arsenal over PSG.

The Gunners secured 56% of outright futures bets placed throughout the season, compared to PSG’s 44%.

The shift in favour of the Parisian side leading up to kickoff suggests a significant increase in bettor confidence in recent weeks, following their impressive knockout stage performances.

According to Sportradar, Dembélé alone represented approximately 46% of goalscorer tickets processed through their network, with Kvaratskhelia accounting for another 28%.

One Arsenal player, Gyökeres, individually accounted for over 5% of bets at 5.11%.

Saka and Declan Rice are the other two Arsenal players among the most backed selections for the Gunners.

In addition, players such as Marquinhos, Gabriel Magalhães, Nuno Mendes, Rice, and Achraf Hakimi are proving popular with bookmakers for anytime bookings.

The overall volume of engagement with the tournament remains substantial. Sportradar reported that over 513 million betting tickets have been placed across this season’s Champions League competition.

All eyes are now on Budapest as the anticipation builds for what promises to be a thrilling Champions League final…